Tariff pause spurring increase in bookings from China
The leader of the busiest U.S. container port does not anticipate a significant surge in import shipments during the recent tariff pause with China.
“We expect some increased vessel bookings from China, but not to a level that will overwhelm the Port of Los Angeles,” said port Executive Director Gene Seroka during a recent media briefing. “It’s likely to be less than the 30% spike we saw during the peak of COVID-19.”
Seroka explained that, based on conversations with stakeholders and current data, bookings are slowly picking up at Asian ports. However, elevated freight prices are prompting retailers, manufacturers, and importers to carefully reassess their strategies.
On May 12, China and the U.S. agreed to temporarily suspend reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.
Looking ahead to June and July — traditionally the peak shipping season — Seroka predicts a four-week period where port volume will range between 70-80% of normal levels.
“Our handling of delayed goods in China is manageable,” he said. “Ship utilization is lower than usual, so carriers have available capacity. However, we don’t expect the kind of cargo surge that caused ships to wait at anchor during the pandemic. In fact, one logistics firm told me that vessel bookings three weeks out are only about 80% of normal.”
In April, port volume rose 9.5% year-over-year to approximately 843,000 TEUs — marking the third-best April on record and the tenth consecutive month of growth. Imports reached 439,000 TEUs, up 5% YoY, while exports declined 3.5% to 128,000 TEUs, continuing a recent downward trend.
However, the first week of May saw imports plummet by 30% compared to last year, driven by tariff-related uncertainty. Seroka notes that this decline is expected to be “substantial” for the entire month, though precise figures are hard to forecast.
In the short term, Seroka acknowledged, “We’re likely to see a pullback in global trade. The market has been quite volatile, influenced by financial data, market dynamics, consumer sentiment, and the recent downgrade of U.S. credit by Moody’s.”
Year-to-date, Los Angeles has processed 3.4 million TEUs— a 6.6% increase over 2024. The port’s container volume has expanded during 19 of the past 21 months since August 2023.
Additionally, the port moved 25% more empty containers back to Asia in April — totaling 842,000 TEUs compared to last year, as liner operators work to better align supply with fluctuating demand through strategic pre-positioning of empties.
